Jamaica braces for heavy rains, as Tropical Storm Melissa looms

The system, currently designated as Invest 98L, is a potent tropical wave producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. According to a 2:00 PM EDT advisory from the NHC, satellite data indicates the system’s circulation is becoming better defined as it slows its forward motion into the central Caribbean. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favourable for development, leading the NHC to assign a 70% chance of formation in the next two days and a 90% chance through the week.

“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days,” the NHC bulletin warned. It further advised interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba to monitor the system’s progress due to the risk of heavy rain, flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this week.

Should the system develop, it would be named Tropical Storm Melissa. Forecasters are currently evaluating several potential tracks, underscoring the uncertainty that remains.

“This has the potential to be a long, drawn-out affair lasting well into next week,” one analysis noted, emphasizing that the system will be moving over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin, which could serve as potent fuel for strengthening.

The Met Service of Jamaica is already factoring the disturbance into its local forecasts. While a separate trough is expected to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly to southern and northwestern parishes this afternoon, attention is turning to Wednesday and beyond.

The national three-day forecast indicates a growing threat of rainfall starting Tuesday, with the significant uptick expected by Wednesday as the strong tropical wave enters the central Caribbean.

“The Meteorological Service continues to closely monitor the strong Tropical Wave currently across the eastern Caribbean Sea,” the local Met Service confirmed in its 5:00 a.m. forecast today.

Residents across the island, especially in southern and northeastern parishes, are advised to prepare for a period of unsettled weather, including intermittent showers and thunderstorms, from mid-week onward. The public should stay alert for further updates as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days.